Inferencia bayesiana en Ciencias Exoplanetariascon JWST
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69976/aspast.v2n2.2Keywords:
Inferencia Bayesiana, JWST, Atmósferas Exoplanetarias, Estructura Interna, AstrobiologíaAbstract
La puesta en operación del James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) ha transformado el estudio de atmósferas exoplanetarias mediante observaciones espectroscópicas de precisión. Este avance ha intensificado la necesidad de marcos analíticos capaces de gestionar la complejidad, degeneración e incertidumbre inherentes a los nuevos datos. En este contexto, la inferencia bayesiana se ha consolidado como el marco
fundamental para la caracterización atmosférica, la conexión con la estructura interna y la evaluación de habitabilidad. Este artículo revisa la evolución reciente de este enfoque, sustentada en un análisis bibliométrico del periodo 2016–2025 que evidencia un crecimiento sustancial en su adopción para la caracterización química y física de exoplanetas. Se sintetizan las aplicaciones más relevantes en la era del JWST, desde la recuperación atmosférica y su acoplamiento con modelos del interior planetario, hasta los marcos probabilísticos para la detección de biofirmas, discutiendo finalmente las limitaciones metodológicas y las perspectivas futuras del campo.
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